.jpg "The Psychology of Poker Losing Streaks: How to Keep Your Cool and Recover")
This article was written by blackrain79.com contributor Fran Ferlan.
Dealing with prolonged losing streaks is arguably the hardest aspect of poker.
You keep doing all the right things, you pick your spots, you put your money in with a mathematical advantage, and yet you keep losing over and over again.
You can’t seem to get a decent hand to save your life, your flush draws never seem to complete, and your opponents keep hitting their miracle river cards in the worst possible situations.
Sound familiar?
If so, don’t worry, because every poker player will go through a similar slump at one point or another.
So in today’s article, we’ll take a closer look at how to deal with the inevitable poker downswings, and how to get your graph on an upwards trajectory as soon as possible.
Let’s get right into it.
1. Can You Prevent Poker Losing Streaks?
Let’s start with the bad news first.
It is impossible to always win in poker, no matter how well you’re playing.
This is true for both amateur and professional poker players alike.
Even the pros will experience prolonged losing streaks from time to time, but they will be better at managing and recovering from them than the amateur poker players.
But losing streaks (aka downswings) are the natural part of the game, so all you can do is make peace with them the best way you can.
The reason why downswings are inevitable in poker has to do with variance.
Simply put, poker variance measures the difference between how much you expect to win over a certain sample size versus how much you actually win.
For example, let’s say we bet on the outcome of the coin flip 10 times. You would expect to win 5 out of 10 times, since the chance of winning a coin flip is exactly 50%.
If you win more than 5 times, you ran better than expected, meaning you experienced positive variance.
If you get unlucky and win less than 5 times, you experienced negative variance.
Going a step further, is it possible to lose a coin flip 10 times in a row?
It’s extremely unlikely, but it’s not impossible.
The odds of losing a coin flip 10 times in a row is 1:1024, or approximately 0.01%.
The same principle applies to poker, as well.
Even if you’re a winning poker player, meaning you’re beating your current stake over a significant sample size, you can still experience prolonged losing periods.
When we talk about poker losing streaks, we’re usually referring to prolonged periods of “bad luck”.
For example, your pocket Aces get cracked over and over again, your flush draws never seem to complete, and your opponent hits an unlikely draw on the river.
Unfortunately, small tragedies like these will never stop happening for as long as you keep playing poker.
Variance is an integral part of the game, and it’s precisely what makes poker profitable in the first place.
Variance makes poker accessible to newer players, because it gives everyone a chance of winning.
Without it, weaker players would quickly get run over by stronger players, and they would stop playing the game altogether.
It also makes players overestimate their skills, because their bad play sometimes gets rewarded.
For example:
Let’s say you flop a top set with pocket Aces.
A♥️A♦️ on A♠️8♣️7♥️
You go all in and your opponent calls you with a backdoor flush draw.
K♣️5♣️
A backdoor flush draw means you need both turn and river cards to complete your flush.
And lo and behold, your opponent actually catches the backdoor flush with some random hand and you’re starting to question your sanity.
In a spot like this, you’ve clearly played well, and your opponent made a terrible blunder, but they came out on top anyway.
But even though they’ve made a terrible mistake, they still have roughly 4% equity against your hand.
This scenario is exaggerated to make a point, but play poker for long enough, and you will see even crazier stuff play out at times.
And unfortunately, sometimes you’re going to be on the receiving end of it.
The good news is that travesties like these don’t happen all that often, but it’s still entirely possible to run badly even though you keep putting your money in with a mathematical advantage.
In the previous example, your play clearly has a positive expected value, and your opponent is not going to be so lucky the next time around.
But the fact they sometimes do get lucky makes them more likely to keep repeating similar mistakes in the future.
So in a way, you should actually be happy when you lose to a weaker player.
It means you’re playing in a profitable game, and you’ve put your money in with a mathematical advantage.
This is actually the best you can hope for, since the outcome of individual hands is beyond your control.
This is something I talked about in my latest video.
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2. How Long Can Losing Poker Streaks Last?
Luck plays a significant role in your poker results over the short run. But over the long run, skill prevails.
The problem is that the long run is a lot longer than most players think.
It can take months, or even years to truly account for variance, and to assess your results with a fair degree of accuracy.
But your skill level is also likely to change over that period, so the long run is a constantly moving target.
Another problem is that you should have a very big sample size to truly account for variance.
This can be challenging to do if you don’t play a lot of poker, or if you only play a couple of hours a week.
The poker pros manage to “outrun” luck by putting an insane number of volume.
The volume simply refers to the number of hands you play over a certain period.
The more hands you play, the less of an impact variance is going to have on your results.
Going back to the coin flip example, it’s entirely possible to lose 8, 9, or even 10 times in a row.
But if we flip that same coin 100 or 1000 times, the outcome is going to be roughly 50:50.
Poker obviously has a lot more variables involved, so trying to figure out how long a losing poker streak can last can be a bit of a challenge.
This is going to depend on a number of factors, namely:
a) your winrate
Your winrate is the closest approximation of your actual skill level. The higher your winrate, the less likely you are to experience a prolonged downswing.
Check out my other article on good winrates on Pokerstars you should aim for these days.
b) the game format you’re playing
Some poker formats inherently have more variance than others. For example, tournament poker has more variance than cash games.
So if you’re playing poker tournaments, it’s not uncommon to experience prolonged periods where you’re not making any significant cashouts.
The good news is that you only need to win one big tournament to make it worthwhile, since poker tournaments have very top-heavy prizes.
c) your volume
The more poker you play, the faster you can get to the long run and account for variance.
If you play poker online, you can play multiple tables at a time, which allows you to put in an insane amount of volume.
Online poker also plays significantly faster than live poker, so it’s a lot easier to get to the long run in less time.
d) your mental game
Poker losing streaks can be incredibly frustrating, so it’s important not to allow them to derail your game.
If you get tilted and start playing poorly due to bad results, your downswing can practically last forever.
The good news is that all of these factors are entirely within your control.
Of course, there are other considerations as well, like the stakes you’re playing, your bankroll management and so on, but the above factors are going to heavily influence the severity of your losing streaks.
So in the rest of the article, we’ll examine strategies you can use to manage your downswings better and turn the trajectory of your graph in the other direction.
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3. Take a Break to Get a Fresh Perspective
If you’re beating your current limit over the long run, a losing streak is only temporary as long as you keep playing your best.
If you make peace with variance as a natural part of the game, downswings won’t bother you as much, and they likely won’t last as long.
However, this is easier said than done.
Even though downswings are inevitable, they’re not always easy to deal with.
When you’re in a downswing, it’s not just the money lost that’s the problem.
Your confidence in your playing abilities can also take a hit, which makes it a lot harder to keep playing at a high level.
This problem is only exacerbated if you keep chasing losses or keep playing until you get “unstuck”.
Being able to keep playing your best despite how you’re running session to session is obviously the best way to deal with a losing streak.
Unfortunately, that’s not always an option.
We’re all human, and things get to us even though we rationally know they shouldn't.
This is especially the case if you’re emotionally invested in what you’re doing, and that’s definitely the case when you’re playing poker.
So sometimes the best way to deal with a losing streak is to just stop playing altogether.
Variance can be brutal in this game, and sometimes you’re going to run worse than you could even imagine.
In times like this, it’s better to just take your mind off the game for a while.
When you take a break, the feeling of frustration will dissipate after a while, and it will allow you to look at things with a fresh perspective.
Ideally, you’re going to realize the bad beats weren’t as terrible as you initially thought, and you’re going to get right back into the game with a healthy mindset.
Another benefit of taking a break is that you’re going to give yourself the opportunity to actually miss playing.
Taking the game seriously is a must if you want to achieve decent results.
But even then, playing poker should be a fun experience.
There’s no point in playing if you’re just going to have a miserable time at the felt.
Winning is obviously a lot more fun than losing, but if you play poker, you’re going to lose close to 50% of the time you play.
So it doesn’t make sense to be miserable half of your entire playing time.
By taking a break, you’re going to be excited to jump back into the action, and you’re going to enjoy the experience for the experience’s sake, not only if you happen to win that particular session.
During your break, you should do something totally unrelated to poker.
Explore your other hobbies, spend some time with friends and family, or do something else just for fun.
Your break should be long enough to give your mind a proper reset.
So when you sit down at the poker table again, you don’t carry over any negative feelings about your previous losing streak.
Taking a break obviously means you won’t put up as much volume, but it’s a lot better for you over the long run.
It’s better to play less when you’re on your A game than to play more on your C game.
If you're currently in the middle of a soul-crushing downswing, make sure to check out my other article on how to deal with poker variance.
4. Study More to Fix Your Leaks off the Felt
There’s two main reasons why you lose at poker: you are either getting unlucky, or you’re making some strategic mistakes in your game.
If it’s the former, just keep calm and carry on. Bad luck can’t last forever, and you’re bound to run normally sooner or later.
But a lot of players are quick to assume their bad results are purely the result of bad luck, and not some fundamental leak in their game.
This very well may be the case, but it doesn’t really help you much.
So it’s a lot more beneficial to assume there are some aspects of your game you could improve.
This may be hard to admit, especially when you’re in the middle of a downswing.
This may be hard to admit, especially when you’re in the middle of a downswing.
The problem with poker is that it’s very hard to accurately assess your actual skill level due to variance.
Since luck plays a major role in your short term results, it’s easy to attribute bad results to bad luck, and good results to your superior playing skills.
The problem with this approach is that you can endlessly delude yourself into thinking that you’re a better player than you actually are.
The fact is, everyone has leaks in their game, and there’s always some aspect of your game you can improve.
If you don’t think that’s the case, then the downswings wouldn’t really bother you at all, because you’d know that you can just bounce right back if you keep playing.
The point is that the best way to deal with a downswing is to take full accountability for your results.
It very well may be that you’re just running badly, but it doesn’t mean you played 100% perfectly.
So you should look at a downswing as an opportunity to critically assess your game, warts and all.
You can examine how you play when everything seems to be going against you.
Everyone can play well when the deck is hitting them in the face.
It’s an entirely different story when the deck goes cold on you.
You may find out that you actually played decently well despite having the worst luck imaginable.
That in itself can actually help lift your spirits; the fact that you managed to keep your cool and make the best out of a bad situation.
The alternative is that you may find out that you actually made a few mistakes, and variance is not entirely to blame for your losing streak.
This is also good news, since now you know what you need to work on to improve your results going forward.
Bottom line: poker downswings can be brutal, but they can also be good opportunities to take a good, hard look at your game.
Sometimes a downswing can actually serve as a breakthrough, and it can propel your game forward to new heights.
But only if you take 100% accountability for your results, good or bad.
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5. Have A Big, Fat Bankroll
There’s no way to prevent poker losing streaks altogether, but there are things you can do to keep your losing streaks to a minimum.
The best way to do so is to obviously improve your winrate.
The bigger your winrate, the less of an impact variance has on your results.
Another thing you can do is to make sure you’re sufficiently bankrolled for the stakes you’re playing.
In other words, you should get a big, fat bankroll to mitigate the negative effects on variance.
Your poker bankroll is the amount of money you specifically set aside to play poker with.
A big bankroll will give you a peace of mind to keep playing your best despite how you’re running session to session.
It will also eliminate the risk of going broke due to negative variance.
As a general rule, it’s advised to have at least 30 full buyins for cash games, and at least 100 buyins for poker tournaments.
The reason why you need way more buyins for tournaments is the fact that poker tournaments have a higher degree of variance built into the format.
This means that you can go for prolonged periods without making any significant cashout.
So your bankroll will usually have a slow, downward trajectory that’s hopefully offset by an occasional big spike if you manage to get “into the money”.
These guidelines should help you weather basic variance without the risk of going broke.
However, if you really want to offset the negative effects of losing streaks, you should bump up your bankroll even more.
For example, you may aim for 50 buyins or even more for cash games.
This may seem excessive, but there are many benefits of having a fortress bankroll.
The first benefit is that you virtually eliminate the risk of losing your whole bankroll.
Even if you experience extremely bad luck, you’re still going to remain afloat, provided of course you don’t spew off your bankroll due to tilt, chasing losses and so on.
The second benefit has to do with basic psychology.
If you have a big bankroll, the losses won’t hurt as much, because you’re only risking a small portion of your bankroll at a time.
For example, if you play cash games and you have 50 full buyins, you’re only buying in for 2% of your entire bankroll.
But if you only had 20 buyins, one buyin accounts for 10% of your whole bankroll.
The third reason why you should have a big bankroll is that it allows you to take shots at higher limits.
Every poker players wants to move up in stakes, but it only makes sense to do so if you’re already beating your current limit and you’re sufficiently bankrolled for a higher limit.
But sometimes, it’s ok to take shots at higher limits even if you’re not fully bankrolled for them.
You can do this if you find the games at higher limit to be particularly soft.
For example, if you spot a big whale at higher limits and there’s a seat available next to them, you should snipe that seat right away!
A poker whale is a particularly bad player that’s likely to spew a lot of chips your way.
By the way, you can check my recent article on how to beat loose players in your games.
You can also take shots at higher stakes to scope out your competition, or to challenge yourself against tougher opponents.
This is a lot easier to do if you’re already sufficiently rolled for your current stakes.
Of course, it goes without saying you should never jump stakes to chase losses.
This is the fastest way to absolutely ruin your bankroll, and it can seriously set you back for a long time.
Finally, it’s worth mentioning that following bankroll management rules only applies if you’re a winning poker player to begin with.
If you’re currently a losing player, the biggest bankroll in the world is not going to save you.
It will just take you longer to go broke.
If you just play poker recreationally, you don’t have to worry about the bankroll considerations, as you can always reload if you run out of funds.
But even if you play poker recreationally, you should still try to follow basic bankroll management.
If for nothing else, to keep track of your progress and to keep track of your funds.
6. What NOT to Do When You’re in the Middle of a Losing Streak
Finally, here are some rapid fire tips on the things to avoid doing during a downswing, as these are likely to just make your downswing even worse.
a) keep playing until you get “unstuck”
Let’s say you’re having a bad session, but the game is very soft and you feel like you can play at least your solid B game.
If that’s the case, it makes sense to keep playing, as you can make your money back and then some.
But if the losses are starting to get to you, and the games aren’t as juicy to begin with, it’s a lot better to just take a break and live to fight another day.
b) jump up in stakes where players “respect your raises”
You may get frustrated because weaker players constantly seem to get lucky against you.
So you think about jumping up the stakes where players play more sensibly and are actually capable of folding.
This line of thinking only makes sense if you don’t think about it for more than two seconds.
It’s true that players at the higher stakes won’t make as many asinine mistakes as players at the lower stakes, but this is precisely what makes them harder to play against.
Players at the higher stakes can also get lucky against you, and they’re just as capable of hitting their lucky river cards.
The only difference is that they won’t make as many fundamental mistakes as weaker players.
c) deleting your database to “start fresh”
If you’re using some good poker software tools, it may be tempting to delete your whole database to start with a clean slate.
In theory, this sort of a “reset” could help you get your losing streak out of sight and out of mind, so you don’t have to ruminate on your past results.
But this doesn’t really work, because it doesn’t actually change anything about the fundamental issue.
Also, your database is an invaluable tool that can tell you a lot about your game.
It’s a diagnostics tool that can help you find potential leaks in your game and learn from your mistakes.
So instead of trying to get your losing streak out of your mind, use it as an opportunity to learn and improve your game.
d) switching poker sites
Similar to the previous idea, switching sites to start fresh doesn’t really do anything to help your losing streak.
Not only is the whole process of switching sites tedious, but you’re also going to encounter a bunch of unknown players on your new site.
This means that you won’t have any reads on your opponents, which means you can expect a slightly lower winrate.
You also need to get used to the new software, which is a whole other issue.
Of course, if you’re unsatisfied with your current poker site, you can always shop around for a new one.
But this only makes sense if the new site is more favourable in some way, e.g. it has better rakeback deals, a softer player pool and so on.
The Psychology of Poker Losing Streaks - Summary
Variance plays a big role in your short term results, so losing streaks are an inevitable part of the game.
You can study the latest advanced poker strategy and be the absolute best player at your table, but you’re still going to experience prolonged losing periods from time to time.
This is arguably the hardest aspect of the game to come to terms with, and it can be incredibly frustrating at times.
So when you’re in a downswing, it’s all about damage control, i.e. making sure you don’t lose any more than absolutely necessary.
If you can’t play your best game, sometimes it’s best to take a break and live to fight another day.
You should also use these downswings as opportunities to critically assess your game and spend more time studying off the felt.
Finally, it’s worth noting that everyone will have to deal with a serious downswing at some point during their poker career.
How you deal with these obstacles will have a greater impact on your long term results than anything you read in a poker strategy book.
So stay strong, keep calm, and keep grinding.
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This article was written by Fran Ferlan
Poker player, writer and coach
Specializing in live and online cash games
For coaching enquiries, contact Fran at fran.redline@gmail.com
Or apply directly for poker coaching with Fran, right here
Lastly, if you want to know the complete strategy I use to make $2000+ per month in small/mid stakes games, grab a copy of my free poker cheat sheet.
